The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League first stage is now at its halfway point, and all 36 clubs have completed their first four games. Although the competition is still in its early stages, many teams, including reigning champions Real Madrid, are already analyzing their prospects for advancing to the knockout rounds.

Real Madrid finds itself in a challenging situation after the first four matchdays. With six points, earned from victories against Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabéu, they currently sit in 18th place. However, defeats to Lille and AC Milan have left them with work to do in the remaining group stage matches.

To assess what Real Madrid needs to advance, Football Rankings mathematician Piotr Klimek has provided key figures based on statistical models. According to his calculations, the minimum number of points required to finish among the top eight (and qualify directly for the round of 16) is estimated at 14.87. For teams aiming to secure a spot in the playoffs (9th to 24th), the benchmark is set at 9.87 points.

For Real Madrid to break into the top eight, they would need to improve their current standing and reach 15 points, meaning they would need to win three of their remaining four games. Ancelotti’s squad faces a tough road ahead, with three of these games being away fixtures: Liverpool (Nov 27), Atalanta (Dec 10), and Brest (Jan 29), with only one home match against Salzburg (Jan 22).

Alternatively, to secure a playoff spot, Real Madrid would need to accumulate at least 10 points, which would likely require one win and a draw from their remaining matches. This would meet the threshold predicted by Klimek’s statistical model, giving them a good chance of being among the top 24 teams and advancing to the playoff stage.

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